Friday, October 5, 2007

Are you a better investor? (Part 2)

This post is continued from Part 1.

2007: A simpler time
Fast-forward to 2007. Your stockbroker and your banker are a swirl of electrons. Adjusted for inflation, the average commission on a retail stock trade comes to about 3 percent of what it cost in 1972. You can choose from among more than 8,000 mutual funds and over 500 exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. You can buy a stock without getting out of your pajamas, and you've never had a trade fail to deliver. And you can watch the prices of your stocks change in real time from your office computer or your iPhone. (aC: Assuming you have already paid a premium for the live prices and dont mind the data charges on your iPhone)

Less cost, more choice and greater convenience: Investing has never been simpler. The birth of the index fund in 1976 enabled anybody with a couple thousand dollars to own every major U.S. stock for less than 0.2 percent in annual expenses. Critics scoffed when Vanguard rolled out the first index fund - "The name of the game is to be the best," said Fidelity chairman Ned Johnson, "and I can't conceive of investment managers not even trying to do better than average" - but year in and year out, indexing has beaten roughly three-quarters of all funds. The investor who minimizes costs maximizes returns. Period.

More recently, indexing has spread to other markets - bonds, foreign stocks, real estate - so you can minimize your costs and maximize your opportunities for profit by covering every base. Meanwhile, the electronic ease of dollar-cost averaging (automatically routing a fixed amount from your bank to your index funds once a month, every month) means you can be a committed investor without ever lifting a finger, second-guessing yourself or timing the market. Combine the two strategies of indexing and dollar-cost averaging and you an hold the entire planet in a single portfolio on permanent autopilot.

Nothing could be simpler.
One thing, however, hasn't changed over the past 35 years: human nature. In 1972, Benjamin Graham was finishing the revise of his seminal work, "The Intelligent Investor," in which he reminded readers that "the investor's chief obstacle - indeed, his worst enemy - is likely to be himself." (aC: I strongly recommend this book for all serious investors out there. Its 400 pages thick and most of the info is rather dry, though the tone of the author can become rather humourous at times, it is definitely a book you will learn a lot from. Best $25 I have invested!)

Then, as now, investors got in trouble by acting on impulse: either getting carried away by greed or being paralyzed by fear. And solutions like indexing have always seemed a little unsatisfying. You want investing to be more complex so you can feel special when you figure it out. And Wall Street wants it to be more complex so it can make more money off your attempts to figure it out.

Thus in the first seven months of 2007, more than 130 ETFs were created to invest in commodities, foreign currencies and single-industry sectors. You can bet on the Swedish krona, buy a basket of carbon-emissions trading credits or attempt to gain twice as much as mid-size stocks lose when they go down. There's now a fund for every conceivable need - and for plenty of inconceivable needs too.

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