Housing Woes (Part 1)

It's so difficult to get a place to live in Singapore.

Let me share some statistics on the resale flats I have viewed in the past month for your own research:-

(1) Stirling Rd
Block 181
Floor level: #11 to #15
Size: 4-room (95 sqm)
Convenience: 1 min walk from/to MRT
Overall feeling: Although the flat is only 7 years old, the flat exterior looks like it has been around since the late 80's. How about the interior? It's worse - It's not renovated at all and the current owners look like they can move out at a whim's notice.
Valuation: $398K
Asking Price: $478K ($80K COV)

(2)Redhill
Block 63B
Floor level: #5 to #10
Size: 4-room (100 sqm)
Age: 6 years
Convenience: 3 mins walk from/to MRT
Overall feeling: They have marble flooring! That's worth like $20K I was told. Its quite well renovated, so we can definitely save on renovation costs.
Valuation: $410K
Asking Price: $495K ($85K COV)

So amongst the 2 above, I don't mind paying $17K more for the Redhill property.

Magic Loans

Magic Loans.

The name itself makes you wonder if the lender will just disappear with your money, doesn't it?

This company basically offers 3 types of loans:-
(a) Homeowner Loans - For new homebuyers or for existing homeowners who can use the money towards the refurbishment/improvement of their houses;
(b) Consolidation Loans - To pay off those outstanding repayments and high interest credit card bills; and
(c) Secured Loans - For those miscelleaneous purposes like buying a new car, taking that dream holiday or financing something very special, such as a family wedding or similar special celebration.

At the prevailing interest rate of 10.9% per annum, I think you can get a better deal elsewhere.

My advise? Caveat Emptor.

My article was featured!

I have previously written a finance article for Helium back in May, and it was recently featured on the homepage! (Don't ask me why they took 5 months to feature it as I have no idea) This is the first time my writing has been recognized! And it's not even highly ranked amongst the Helium readers... Hmmm... I wonder why it made the cut in the first place...

Here's a link to the article.

I have stopped writing for Helium since 18th May 2007 because my consolidated earnings for these 5 months has been a staggering 65 cents... Haha...

PayPerPost has definitely been more rewarding, although I am only picking up drips and draps... Those US$100+ Opps are out of my reach due to my low Google PR...

Do you have adequate insurance?

With over a thousand general insurance companies operating in the UK, wouldn't it be great if there's a website that will compare the insurance plans, premiums, T&Cs, etc., and simply tell you which plan is most suited for your particular profile? Well, head on down to nationsfinance.co.uk then!

To adequately protect your wealth in the event of a fire or a burglary, I would advise that you do not save on Home insurance.

Similarly, if you own a car, you should protect yourself by buying adequate Car insurance, especially if you are still servicing a loan on it.

Lastly, to minimize your loasses from the loss of a luggage during an overseas trip, you should have travel insurance before you even embark on the holiday.

In conclusion, whatever you may do, mitigate your risk with the appropriate insurance policies. It's money you cannot afford to not spend.

Why oil isn't so expensive after all

Source: Moneyweek.com

I was reading an email form an ex-colleague in America this morning. He was arguing that the oil price would hit $300 a barrel should the US invade Iran. This seems more and more likely in my mind as the rhetoric ratchets up - and I hold my head in despair. (aC: US$300 per barrel on pure speculation?? Can that still be considered speculation or a calculated move?)

I fear that an attack on Iran is becoming a real and present danger, despite US government denials. After all, I remember Donald Rumsfeld saying on TV soon after 9/11 that the US government hawks would not use the terrorist attacks in New York as an excuse to attack Iraq. We all know what happened next.

The thought of oil at $300 is shocking, but is it realistic? Isn’t oil really expensive at the moment as it is?

Well, although I believe that $300 a barrel is unlikely in the short, or even the medium term, but I don’t think that oil is particularly expensive at the moment, despite it being at historic nominal highs.

I expect the price to rise – we should easily see $100 a barrel next year… maybe even this year should the White House warmongers hit the red Iran button. (aC: Hmmm... somehow I can picture the US President having a physical red button labelled "War"... Not as hard to imagine, compared to a $300 per barrel of crude oil.)

If you adjust for inflation, the oil price peak at the start of 1981 was in excess of $100. We are still below that figure. But this is not why I believe that the current oil price is cheap. Let’s take a look at some figures to illustrate my point of view.

First, let’s ask ourselves a basic question – how much crude is there in a barrel of oil…

One barrel of oil officially contains 42 US gallons…
This converts into 35 imperial gallons…
There are 8 pints in a gallon…
That means one barrel of oil contains 280 pints...
WTI futures are currently approximately $87 a barrel…
That means one pint of crude oil costs 31 cents, or 15p in real money...

When put like that, it does not sound as outrageously expensive as some commentators claim. So, what else can you buy for 15p a pint?

I took a quick look around Tesco.com to try and find out…

One pint of milk costs 40p.
The one pint equivalent of Evian water costs around 70p.
The cheapest vegetable oil costs 39p a pint.
Extra virgin olive oil costs 227p a pint.

And then there’s beer… The average cost of a pint of beer in the UK is 250p, according to a report I read on the BBC. However, that’s not what it costs the pub. It is not exactly easy to find out how much your local boozer pays for its beer, so I have to go as far back as 2004 and a written submission from the Federation of Small Businesses to the Trade & Industry Committee.

In this submission, it was revealed that Carlsberg-Tetley charged 42p a pint for Carlsberg lager when it supplied it to a freehouse. You can expect it to be higher than this level now, but 42p for a pint of Carling is significantly higher than 15p for a pint of crude.

Now, of course we are not really comparing like with like here, I understand that. Crude oil is a feed substrate not a finished product like the items on my Tesco shopping list or a pint of beer from a brewery. However, I think for illustrative purposes it makes a good point.

The truth is that oil is NOT extortionately priced and it is almost inevitable that the price is going to rise.

Also worth noting is that in 1981, when oil hit its peak price because of the Iran-Iraq war, a pint of milk cost 17p. That is still more expensive than a pint of crude costs today; without even taking the monster of inflation into consideration.

Oil is cheap, despite the newspaper headlines. The world population is soaring and demand is rising significantly. According to US government forecasts, world petroleum liquids consumption is expected to increases from 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 118 million barrels per day in 2030.

That’s an increase of almost 30%... and we are not finding enough new oil reserves to meet this demand.

The price of oil has to increase otherwise it would be betraying the laws of economics. I bet that in 10 year’s time after the Asian population has boomed and gentrified and peak oil has hit home hard, you will have to agree with me that oil at $87 a barrel was cheap, cheap, cheap… (aC: Just like how we thought the prices of 1981 were expensive when oil was just traded at $21 per barrel...)

(aC: Hmmm... But it leaves me to ponder - What if mankind discovered other renewable sources of energy that could replace or potentially replace crude oil? Would oil price still mindlessly climb up? Well, we all know from economics 101 what near perfect substitutes does to the price of a commodity. And in this day and age, is it impossible to make such a "discovery" in chemical laboratories? So before you buy go all out to buy gallons of oil futures at $89, think again...)

Taking the Credit for Credit Cards

cardguide.com.uk is an online website that provides a comparison guide of all the major credit cards available in the UK.

With regard to the hot topic of balance transfers, the above website recommends that one selects a credit card that offers 0% balance transfer and use it solely for its balance transfer feature. Do not make purchases on it. Why? This way, any repayment made to that card goes straight to repaying the balance transfer - and only the balance transfer. Make sure the balance is fully paid off before the 0% deal expires to avoid incurring interest charges, or transfer the debt remaining to another card.

There are also 0% purchase credit cards available. In a nutshell, these 0% credit cards offer you free credit for an introductory period before the standard annual interest reate is applied, in essence giving you a loan at 0% for a specified period of time before the credit card's standard rate kicks in. The "free period" ranges from 3 months to 13 months. My advise? Grab the 13-month one of course!

Singapore Banking Stocks - DBS & UOB (Part 1)

DBS Group Holdings

DBS will be releasing its Q3 Results on 26 Oct 07 before market opens for trading.

On Sept 19 07, DBS announched a S$400 million share buy-back programme. Share buy-back tends to give a lift to the stock price, due to a decrease in the Shares Outstanding. As this buy-back has not been effected yet, we will not see the upward movement in the stock price in the short term due to the buy-back.

On 27 Sept 07, DBS announced that DBS Vickers Securities Online is now fully owned by its subsidiary. Given the current trading volume of the Singapore Stock market, and DBS Vickers' market share of online brokerage, this should have a positive contribution to DBS's bottomline, even after accounting for the cash consideration of $6.5 million. However, we should see this contributing to the Q4 results and not Q3.

On Oct 8 07, DBS China launched its RMB products - Although this has no material impact to its upcoming results, it should nonetheless have a positive contribution to its Q4 results.

From the above, I think my recommendation is kinda obvious by now. Hold DBS stocks/warrants till the release of its Q4 (FY) results.

Price target: $24 by year end.

eDeal Finder

Ho Ho Ho! Christmas is just round the corner... Are you feeling overwhelmed by the tons of gifts you have/need to buy?

If you are, why not check out edealfinder.com for some amazing discount coupons?

Thinking of buying some jewellery from Blue Nile for that special someone, do check out these great BlueNile coupons!

For Computer and peripherals, go check out these fantastic Dell discounts!

Online Christmas Shopping has never been easier.

Bernanke has warning for Wall Street

In a speech in New York, the Fed chairman said the central bank's big interest rate cut last month has helped but that the Fed can't 'insulate investors from risk.'

(Source: CNNMoney.com)

In a speech to the New York Economic Club Monday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank's rate cut in September has shown signs of success, but cautioned that lenders and investors must bear responsibility for financial decisions that caused the subprime mortgage meltdown.

"Although the Federal Reserve can seek to provide a more stable economic background that will benefit both investors and non-investors, the truth is that it can hardly insulate investors from risk, even if it wished to do so," Bernanke said, adding that "over the past few months...those who made bad investment decisions lost money."

The Fed slashed the federal funds rate, a key short-term interest rate that impacts rates on consumer loans, by a half of a percentage point on September 18. Bernanke said the rate cut, combined with an earlier cut to the symbolic discount rate in August, helped to "reduce some of the pressure in financial markets" and that "the improved functioning of financial markets is a positive development."

Behind the Citigroup rescue
Bernanke also said that the weakness in the housing market "is likely to be a significant drag on growth in the current quarter and through early next year."

But he hinted that it may not get that much worse and that investors and lenders may have learned from their mistakes. He did not specifically mention a plan unveiled Monday by a group of big banks to create a fund to buy mortgage-backed securities in his prepared remarks, however.

"Rather than becoming more crisis-prone, the financial system is likely to emerge from this episode healthier and more stable than before," he said.

Investors looking for a sign that the Fed may cut rates again at the conclusion of a two-day meeting on October 31 may be disappointed though. He indicated that the Fed "was prepared to reverse the policy easing if inflation pressures proved stronger than expected."

But during a question and answer session following his speech, David Malpass, chief economist at Bear Stearns, asked Bernanke if he thought the value of the dollar impacts inflation. Bernanke said he did not think a fixed exchange rate system affects the economy.

(aC: I will stick my neck out and state it here that I do not think the Fed will cut its rates any further at its coming Oct 31 meeting. Reason? The Dow is back to its all time high at the 14,000 level; There has been no news lately with regard to any financial institutions going bankrupt because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis; Consumer confidence is back judging from job data and Consumer Price Index.)

National Pay Day

Everybody's after your salary even before you earn it. Nope, not just your wife, but Everybody!

Banks are charging lesser on transaction costs if you invest in their mutual funds products on a monthly basis using your salary. This is becasue your salary acts as a form of guaranteed monthly cash flow for the bank, and they are "banking" on the fact that most people tend to forget where their money is being siphoned off to if its done electronically and remains hassle free for the investor.

Anyway, coming back to the point of short term loans, who needs short term loans in the first place? If you barely qualify for the no faxing payday loan that National Pay Day offers, then you are probably the right candidate. If you make about $1,000 per month, a 16-day tenure loan of a max of $600 means a 60% increase in your salary. But if $600 is considered critical for your needs, and you have no other avenues to turn to except for short-term loan companies, my advise is that you start saving. Seriously, please start examining your financial health because you should have at least 3 months worth of savings for emergency users.

I know this is probably easy for me to say esp. since I am not in any financial crisis, but I'm saying this because you will probably just dig yourself in a deeper hole by turning to short term loans. Don't forget that the interest rate is 25% - that's 1% higher than what most credit card companies are charging on a late payment. So, I guess the only reason you should take out a short term loan is if you can find an investment that guarantees you a 26% return within 16 days on a $600 principal. If you can find such a vehicle, pls let me know; I don't mind earning $6 every 16 days.

For those with strong willpower, that's a good offer for you - Your first $300 from National Pay Day is Free. Free in the sense that you just have to pay back $300 after 16 days and not $375. Again I stress that this is for those with strong willpower.

Are You A Better Investor (Part 3)

This Post is continued from Part 2.

Three rules to invest by
So how do you put all the innovations of the past 35 years to the best use for you, not Wall Street? Follow these rules:

(1) If there's a cheap way and an expensive way to solve an investing
problem, stick with the cheap one.
The typical hedge fund gouges clients but produces mediocre returns. As for mutual funds, a recent study found that each 1 percent increase in annual expenses reduces performance by 1.6 percent; managers may be taking on more risk to overcome the drag of higher costs.
(aC: Some studies have shown that an actively managed stock portfolio is not able to beat the after cost net profits of a randonly picked stock portfolio that is passively managed. This means that you don't get anything in return for paying more)

(2) High returns and low risks don't come in the same package.
As Milton Friedman said, "There's no such thing as a free lunch." Just this summer, bank-loan and long-short funds became the latest "low risk, high return" products to flame out.
(aC: Maybe to make this more complete, it should be mentioned that High Returns and High Risks dont necessarily come in the same package either)

(3)If you are presented with too many choices, you'll end up afraid to choose at all.
Psychologists have shown that having to pick among dozens of options not only makes it much harder for us to make up our minds, but it also fills us with regret. No matter what we choose, we worry that another choice must have been better. So don't bother scouring among thousands of mutual funds and packing your 401(k) and other accounts with 78 of them. Instead, own a handful of low-cost, diversified index funds, add to them every month and do nothing else.
(aC: How true this is; If we are unable to filter the barrage of information that bombards us everyday, we will end up being paralysed by the wealth of information that the Internet and Media has brought us in today's world. I think one way to filter choices is to know clearly what you want in the first place, only after that when you presented with choices/options, you know which is the best/right choice. If you do not know what you want in the first place, you can be overwhelmed by the sheer amount of information)

The bottom line
Despite Wall Street's unrelenting efforts to complicate it, investing can be simple. But it isn't easy. In 2007 as in 1972, building wealth is very much like losing weight. Eat less, exercise more: That's simple! But it's not easy, because the world is teeming with chocolate cake and Cheetos.

Likewise, buy a diversified basket of index funds and do nothing: That's simple! But it's not easy because the world is full of TV touts, cold-calling brokers and (temporarily) hot funds. Realize that what's good about the difference between 1972 and 2007 is also what's bad. Lower cost is great if you trade rarely and wisely, but
not if it tempts you into buying and selling constantly. More choice is great if you add a few selected good things to your portfolio in moderation, but not if you end up with an unplanned jumble of investments. More convenience is great if you use it to make your life easier, but not if you take time away from family and friends to update your stock portfolio.

Lower cost, more choice and greater convenience are not means to an end, they are the end. Use them to achieve some other result, and you will fritter away the advantages the past 35 years have brought. You might as well be back in 1972, wearing plaid bell-bottoms and driving a Dodge Dart.

Review: DialAFlight

If you are thinking of taking weekend breaks, short breaks or even city breaks with your friends or family, why not pay DialAFlight a visit, as they got some awesome deals for you.

DialAFlight is filled with some Cheap Flights and Incredible Holiday Offers! For example, on the top right hand corner of the site, you will find that you can stay at the Serpent Hostel for only £24! If you doubt the quality or question the comfort of a 1 star hotel, you can just scroll down the list as the offers are arranged according to the number of (hotel related) stars.

Hmmm... Again, I'm itching to recommend some improvements to the site. I know this is a UK-based company, but why should everything be displayed in "£"? If the target audience is that of an international one, I recommend that the website implement a function which would allow its users to change the currency of the displayed prices. The available currencies should at the very least include the countries being featured on the website.

Another laudable feature of the site is the ability to hire a vehicle, and it offers a different set of wheels for different states of Australia. Hmmm... £144 for a one-week drive of the Hyundai Getz in Cairns - Nice!

Lastly, if you accept DialAFlight's bundle offer of booking both a Flight as well as a Hotel stay, you get to enjoy a preferential rate! As to how "preferential" this rate is, you gotta call/phone/dial them to find out. Put your negotiation skills to the test!

Are you a better investor? (Part 2)

This post is continued from Part 1.

2007: A simpler time
Fast-forward to 2007. Your stockbroker and your banker are a swirl of electrons. Adjusted for inflation, the average commission on a retail stock trade comes to about 3 percent of what it cost in 1972. You can choose from among more than 8,000 mutual funds and over 500 exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. You can buy a stock without getting out of your pajamas, and you've never had a trade fail to deliver. And you can watch the prices of your stocks change in real time from your office computer or your iPhone. (aC: Assuming you have already paid a premium for the live prices and dont mind the data charges on your iPhone)

Less cost, more choice and greater convenience: Investing has never been simpler. The birth of the index fund in 1976 enabled anybody with a couple thousand dollars to own every major U.S. stock for less than 0.2 percent in annual expenses. Critics scoffed when Vanguard rolled out the first index fund - "The name of the game is to be the best," said Fidelity chairman Ned Johnson, "and I can't conceive of investment managers not even trying to do better than average" - but year in and year out, indexing has beaten roughly three-quarters of all funds. The investor who minimizes costs maximizes returns. Period.

More recently, indexing has spread to other markets - bonds, foreign stocks, real estate - so you can minimize your costs and maximize your opportunities for profit by covering every base. Meanwhile, the electronic ease of dollar-cost averaging (automatically routing a fixed amount from your bank to your index funds once a month, every month) means you can be a committed investor without ever lifting a finger, second-guessing yourself or timing the market. Combine the two strategies of indexing and dollar-cost averaging and you an hold the entire planet in a single portfolio on permanent autopilot.

Nothing could be simpler.
One thing, however, hasn't changed over the past 35 years: human nature. In 1972, Benjamin Graham was finishing the revise of his seminal work, "The Intelligent Investor," in which he reminded readers that "the investor's chief obstacle - indeed, his worst enemy - is likely to be himself." (aC: I strongly recommend this book for all serious investors out there. Its 400 pages thick and most of the info is rather dry, though the tone of the author can become rather humourous at times, it is definitely a book you will learn a lot from. Best $25 I have invested!)

Then, as now, investors got in trouble by acting on impulse: either getting carried away by greed or being paralyzed by fear. And solutions like indexing have always seemed a little unsatisfying. You want investing to be more complex so you can feel special when you figure it out. And Wall Street wants it to be more complex so it can make more money off your attempts to figure it out.

Thus in the first seven months of 2007, more than 130 ETFs were created to invest in commodities, foreign currencies and single-industry sectors. You can bet on the Swedish krona, buy a basket of carbon-emissions trading credits or attempt to gain twice as much as mid-size stocks lose when they go down. There's now a fund for every conceivable need - and for plenty of inconceivable needs too.

Review: Coupon Chief

Well, Christmas is in 2 months time and with the recent Bull Run, everybody's got that extra cash to spend! So what's a great place to do your Christmas shopping?

If you are looking for Home Electronics, do check out these amazing BestBuy.com deals!

• 10% Off on all Maytag & Whirlpool major kitchen appliances
• $100 Off any Frigidaire front-loading laundry pair;
• $10 - $50 Off select MP3 players plus Free Shipping;
• $30 price drop on Sony T20 Cyber-shot 8.1MP digital camera; and
• $50 price drop on Casio S770 EXILIM 7.2MP digital camera.

Or, if you prefer some Computers related gizmos, check out these great Dell.com bargains!

• $20 off Viewsonic 19-inch Monitor with iPod Dock;
• $16 off Samsung 19-inch Monitor; and
• $584 off Inspiron E1405.

So what are you waiting for? Hurry on down to Coupon Chief to do your online shopping today!

Are You a Better Investor? (Part 1)

Over the past 35 years, investing has become simple, cheap and convenient. Now it's a snap to build your wealth - or destroy it.

By Jason Zweig, Money Magazine senior writer/columnist

It is Oct. 26, 1972. You turn on your transistor radio and the newscaster reads the closing-bell report from the New York Stock Exchange: The Dow Jones industrial average - led by stocks like Bethlehem Steel, International Harvester, Johns-Manville and Union Carbide - closed at 950.56 on an extremely heavy volume of 20.8 million shares.

The next morning you drive over to see George, your stockbroker. He recommends the Fidelity Trend Fund, which charges a sales commission, or load, of only 8.5 percent; most of the 400 or so load funds in existence charge 8.75 percent. Whenever you buy and sell a stock, George's commission will average about 1.3 percent of the transaction. But so would any other broker's.

In 1972 "the investing world was much easier to comprehend," says Joel Seligman, a financial historian and president of the University of Rochester. You knew your broker, and he sold stocks, not funds of hedge funds. Your bank took deposits, not mutual-fund commissions. Your insurance agent didn't come at you swinging a variable annuity like a meat ax. During a typical week in 1972, the total of all trades on the New York Stock Exchange was less than the trading volume of Microsoft shares on a typical day in 2007.

Road map to a rich life
But the investing world of 1972 was also low in choice, high in cost and short on convenience and information. Nasdaq and money-market funds were less than a year old. There was no such thing as a discount broker, an index fund or a municipal bond fund, not to mention an IRA or a 401(k).

If you wanted a no-load fund, "first you had to find it," recalls fund expert Michael Lipper of Lipper Advisory Services. That meant watching for an ad, making a toll call, waiting for the prospectus, then mailing in the check - a process that could take weeks.

And 7 percent of all stock trades in 1972 "failed to deliver," meaning that the paper certificates for the shares did not change hands within five days, potentially voiding the transaction. To check on your investments, you waited for tomorrow's newspaper, or next week's - or the maiden issue of Money Magazine that October, which many charter subscribers signed up for as the only convenient way to track their mutual funds.

(aC: So which do you prefer? The 1970s or the 2007s? The cost of a trade transaction is definitely cheaper now, but the cost have been transferred to other avenues. If you want "Live Prices" - you gotta pay. If you want daily corporate news update - you gotta pay. Why? Because if you don't, you will be at a disadvantage. The speed of information is so important nowadays that news out in this morning's papers are already considered old news. There should be an update on the word "newspaper" to "oldpaper")

Continue to Part 2...

Car Guy Garage

What do you do with your garage? Is it still a place for your car to sleep in? After I have sold my car off last year (as I live a mere 10 mins away from my workplace), my garage has become my storeroom. I really dread going in there as I fear my old junk may just fall on me if they are not stacked properly, haha!

If you, like me, are thinking of "pimping up" your garages, why not pay carguygarage.com a visit? They cabinets, workbenches, tool boxes, garage flooring, garage storage, garage cabinets, garage door openers, organization, garage heaters, garage floor tile, floor mats, garage floor paint, storage systems, laundry room cabinets and other garage packages. You should be able to find something to spruce up your garage.

Why stocks can shake off mortgage meltdown (Part 2)

This post is continued from Part 1.

(3) Economy still fundamentally strong Turmoil in the credit markets is being caused by a repricing of risk, and not from problems stemming from the broader economy, many say.

"In our opinion this is a financial market event rather than a real economy event," said John Ip, senior economist for Morley Fund Management in London.

As a result, highly leveraged companies and financial firms are likely to feel the pain. But so far, it doesn't look like the upheaval is affecting the ability of companies on sound footing to get credit, he said.

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said Wednesday that the fallout from subprime problems was contained and that the global economy remains strong, Reuters reported.

In a sign of the strength of the worldwide economy, the International Monetary Fund last week revised its global growth forecast for 2007 and 2008 to 5.2 percent, up from a previous forecast of 4.9 percent.

(4) Plenty of cash out there Despite problems roiling the debt markets, liquidity - or the amount of money available for investing - remains plentiful worldwide.

China and Russia, for example, have accumulated massive reserves. The global economic boom has also helped drive corporate profits, and many companies are sitting on loads of cash.

"Liquidity is quite abundant and it will cushion the world's economy and the financial markets against the current turmoil," Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak and Co. in New York, wrote in a note this week

The tumult in the credit market may persist for some time, but it's likely that "credit formation will return to levels sufficient to power a continuation of the global economic expansion," he wrote.